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Future demand for tertiary education in New Zealand: 2009 to 2025 and beyond

Future demand for tertiary education in New Zealand: 2009 to 2025 and beyond

This study models demand for tertiary education between 2009 and 2025 based on underlying population trends and three scenarios with different assumptions about how rates of participation in tertiary education might vary.

Author: Ralf Engler, Tertiary Sector Performance Analysis & Reporting [Ministry of Education]
Date Published: June 2009

Summary

This study shows that demand for formal provider-based tertiary education by domestic students will increase over the medium to long term. This is driven by the current economic recession, long-term government goals for skill enhancement, and changes to the ethnic mix and age structure of New Zealand?s population. Demand for tertiary education was modelled using scenarios based on the above drivers of demand, and considered against age group, gender, ethnicity, and level of study, type of study (full-time versus part-time) and tertiary education sub-sector.

Demand for industry training is likely to fall in the short term as unemployment rises during the recession, but this will be tempered by efforts to minimise job losses and encourage industry training. The demand for industry training over the short term is therefore less certain.